Updated NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

By Andrew Musur on March 5, 2015

After another exciting week of college basketball the landscape for March Madness has changed. A few teams grabbed résumé boosting wins, as others failed to capitalize on the opportunities at hand.

With exactly nine days until Selection Sunday, here is my updated Bubble Watch.

Colorado State University, 23-5 (11-5), Mountain West Conference

RPI: 26 SOS: 121

Key Wins: San Diego State (RPI #25), Boise State (RPI #30)

Bad Losses: New Mexico (RPI #170)

Colorado State has been very impressive this year. The Rams breezed to a 12-0 start with their easy non-conference schedule. During that stretch, Colorado State only played one power five conference team: Colorado. The Rams also used conference play to their advantage notching two top 30 RPI wins over San Diego State and Boise State.

Verdict: Although the Rams have played an extremely weak schedule, only taking on 2 RPI top 50 teams (twice), they shouldn’t have a problem making the tournament.

Colorado State flirted with a top 25 position in the AP poll all season and has the highest RPI of all bubble teams, but will need a strong finish to the regular season and conference tournament to secure a bid in the big dance.

Temple University, 20-9 (11-5), American Athletic Conference

RPI: 35 SOS: 65

Key Wins: Kansas (RPI #2), Cincinnati (RPI #51), Louisiana Tech (RPI #55)

Bad Losses: Saint Joseph’s (RPI #182)

There is no doubt that Temple passes the eye test when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The Owl’s are a top 35 RPI team with a couple of quality wins. One of those quality wins came at home against #9 Kansas.

Temple was able to dominate the Jayhawks by 25. The only problem about that win is that it came a long, long time ago. With no real significant wins since then, it’s tough to gauge where the Owls sit.

Verdict: At this point I think it is tough to keep anyone inside the RPI top 35 out of the tournament. Sure, the Owls don’t have more than one top 50 win, but they only have one bad loss.

The good thing about that loss is that it occurred during the non-conference portion of their schedule, in early November. At this point, I am putting Temple into the Tournament.

Davidson College, 20-6 (12-4), Atlantic 10 Conference

RPI: 36 SOS: 131

Key Wins: Dayton (RPI #29)

Bad Losses: St. Bonaventure (RPI #119), Saint Joseph’s (RPI #182)

Davidson failed to lock any significant wins during the non-conference portion of their schedule. The Wildcats lost both of their marquee match-ups against North Carolina and Virginia.

Though the Wildcats didn’t get any big wins early in the season, they were able to get a huge win against conference foe Dayton. There are plenty of reasons to have faith in this Davidson team going forward. They are a top 10 team in points per game (79.6) and assists per game (16.7).

Verdict: The Flyers are the lone big win for Davidson, making it hard for me to put them into the tournament. Thankfully for Davidson they have an Atlantic 10 showdown against VCU on Thursday; win that one and the Wildcats may be sitting pretty.

Brigham Young University, 21-8 (13-5), West Coast Conference

RPI: 39 SOS: 76

Key Wins: Gonzaga (RPI #9), Stanford (RPI #56)

Bad Losses: San Diego (RPI #145), Pepperdine twice (RPI #150)

BYU closed the season on a tremendous hot streak. The Cougars have won their last 6 games, including a road win against West Coast Conference champion, Gonzaga, snapping their 41 game home winning streak.

BYU was able to go into the Kennel Club and escape with a huge win. Though the Gonzaga win was nice, it didn’t do more than put BYU towards the top of the bubble.

Verdict: I have to put BYU in. Not only do the Cougars have impressive wins over Gonzaga and Stanford, but they also barely lost to three of their RPI top 25 opponents. BYU lost in double overtime to San Diego State by five, lost to #13 Utah by four and lost their first meeting with #8 Gonzaga by seven.

With a good run in the West Coast Conference tournament, BYU will be in the tournament.

University of Pittsburgh, 18-11 (8-8), Atlantic Coast Conference

RPI: 49 SOS: 80

Key Wins: North Carolina (RPI #12), Notre Dame (RPI #27), Syracuse twice (#57)

Bad Losses: Hawaii (RPI #164), Virginia Tech (RPI #213)

Pittsburgh is a miserable 2-7 against teams ranked in the RPI top 25, granted the Panthers play in one of the toughest conferences in basketball.

Though Pittsburgh has struggled in most big games, they have made some count this season. The Panthers bested Notre Dame and North Carolina during conference play, and have a huge game with Miami coming up.

Verdict: Right now, I am keeping Pitt. out of the tournament, but that doesn’t mean they can’t crawl into it. The Panthers have struggled through most of this year, and without a win over Miami or a run in the ACC Conference tournament, it’s over for Pitt.

University of Cincinnati, 20-9 (11-5), American Athletic Conference

RPI: 51 SOS: 73

Key Wins: SMU twice (RPI #20), San Diego State (RPI #25), Temple (RPI #40), NC State (RPI #50)

Bad Losses: Nebraska (RPI #124), Tulane (RPI #181), East Carolina (RPI #224)

Cincinnati has been all over the place this season. The Bearcats started their tough non-conference schedule 5-0, before falling to Ole Miss (66-54 Neutral) and Nebraska (2OT 56-55 Road). Though both of those games should have been wins for the Bearcats, they rebounded nicely winning against San Diego State (OT 71-62 Home) and another bubble team, North Carolina State (76-60 Road).

But the best part about Cincinnati is that they continued to pick up quality wins during their conference season. The Bearcats are one of the few teams that have two wins over SMU, and four wins against teams inside the RPI top 50.

Verdict: At this point Cincinnati is right on the line, but I have put them in the tournament. The Bearcats have just as good of a résumé, if not better, than conference foe Temple. This could quickly change as the Bearcats have a huge résumé building opportunity when they take on Tulsa on Wednesday.

Tulsa currently sits atop the American Athletic Conference standings and comes in ranked at 37 in the RPI. A win over Tulsa, and the Bearcats are absolutely in, a loss and well … the bubble will take another prisoner.

Purdue University, 19-10 (11-5), Big Ten Conference

RPI: 58 SOS: 80

Key Wins: Ohio State (RPI #33), BYU (RPI #39), Indiana twice (RPI #42), Iowa (RPI #48), NC State (RPI #50)

Bad Losses: Gardner-Webb (RPI #157), North Florida (RPI #175)

At first glance, you may think there is no reason why Purdue should even be on this bubble list. The Boilermakers are 6-4 against RPI top 50 teams, and currently sit at third in the Big Ten Standings.

However, Purdue has some really bad losses. The Boilermakers lost home games to North Florida back on December 6 and Gardner-Webb on December 22. These two loses are why some think Purdue is vulnerable when it comes to the tournament.

Verdict: I have no reason not to put the Boilermakers into the tournament. As stated above, they currently sit at THIRD in the Big Ten Conference. I find it very hard to believe that the committee would leave out the third place team from the Big Ten.

Although I think Purdue deserves a spot in the tournament, the Boilermakers still have work to take care of. Purdue travels to East Lansing Wednesday and hosts Illinois Saturday, two bubble teams that the Boilermakers cannot afford to lose to.

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